Why are receipt-roll prices rising so sharply?
Frank Lunkeit · 2023-02-23

A look at price developments over the preceding 3 years [Archive note: all relative dates, market figures, causal explanations, demographic statements and forecasts below refer to the historical source. They have not been independently verified here and are not a current price report or forecast.]
Why are thermal-roll prices rising so sharply?
One possible reason for rising thermal-roll prices is a general shortage of raw materials combined with increased demand in various industries. Raw-material prices had risen sharply in the preceding months because of supply-chain disruptions, increased demand and production bottlenecks. This could also raise thermal-roll manufacturing costs and therefore selling prices.
Another possible reason is inflation, which has occurred in some countries due to the recovery and increased demand for goods and services. The higher prices of thermal rolls could therefore also be a consequence of these general price increases.
However, it is important to note that there may also be other factors that cause the price increase of thermal rolls, such as rising transport costs or changes in manufacturing costs. It is therefore possible that there are also specific reasons for the price increase of thermal rolls, which differ from the general factors.
How have raw-material prices in the paper industry developed since 2019?
The historical article gives the following overview of raw-material prices in the paper industry since 2019 and their possible effect on thermal-roll prices:
• Pulp: Pulp is an important raw material for many paper products. The source reports considerable changes since 2019 due to supply and demand. It gives the price of NBSK pulp (Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft) as around USD 800 per tonne in 2019, rising to about USD 950 per tonne in 2020 because of supply shortages and high orders from China. It reports a record high of over USD 1,400 per tonne in the second quarter of 2021, followed by some stabilisation.
• Wood: The source also reports substantial changes since 2019. It gives European spruce prices as around 80 euros per cubic metre in 2019, over 100 euros per cubic metre in 2020 due to demand and sawmill bottlenecks, and over 150 euros per cubic metre in summer 2021 after further increases in 2021.
• Chemicals: Resins and acids are used to manufacture paper products. The article describes stable raw-material prices in 2019, followed by shortages and higher prices in 2020 due to production and transport disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. It says this trend continued in 2021.
Overall, it can be said that raw material prices in the paper sector have been subject to considerable fluctuations since 2019. In particular, the prices of pulp and wood have increased significantly in recent years, which can also affect the prices of thermal rolls.
How much do energy costs affect paper production?
Energy costs are an important factor in paper production, as they can have a significant impact on production costs. In the paper industry, energy is needed for various processes such as heating, drying, cooking and bleaching.
However, the exact impact of energy costs on paper production depends on many factors, such as the type of raw material used, the size of the manufacturing plant and the type of energy source.
The source puts energy costs at between 10% and 30% of production costs in the paper industry. Rising energy prices can raise production costs and consequently selling prices.
Therefore, many paper manufacturers are keen to take energy efficiency measures and use renewable energy sources to reduce their energy costs and improve their competitiveness. Overall, the energy costs in paper production have a significant impact on the industry and its competitiveness.
How much do supply chain problems with China and the US affect the production of thermal paper
How much do supply chain problems with China and the US affect the production of thermal paper
Supply chain issues with China and the US can affect the production of thermal paper, as both countries are major suppliers of raw materials and semi-finished products needed for the production of thermal paper.
The source describes China as one of the largest producers of chemicals and raw materials used in thermal-paper production, such as leuco dyes (Leuco-Dye). Supply-chain problems can cause raw-material shortages and affect production.
The USA is also an important supplier of raw materials and semi-finished products for the paper industry, especially pulp. When supply chain issues arise, this can lead to the availability of pulp being limited, which can affect the production of paper products such as thermal paper.
In addition, supply chain issues can also lead to bottlenecks in the procurement of machinery and equipment needed for the production of thermal paper. If these problems cause delays in delivery, this can lead to production outages and delays in product delivery.
Overall, supply chain issues with China and the US can affect the production of thermal paper, as both countries supply important raw materials and semi-finished products for the paper industry. If there are shortages or delays in delivery, this can lead to production outages and delays in the delivery of products.
How much do transport costs affect the production of thermal papers? How have transport costs developed internationally, but also nationally?
Transportation costs can have a significant impact on the production of thermal paper, as the raw materials and semi-finished products needed to produce thermal paper often have to be imported from different parts of the world. Also, the distribution and shipping of the finished products is often carried out over long distances.
Transportation costs depend on various factors, such as distance between suppliers and manufacturers, fuel and energy costs, and transport infrastructure requirements. As transport costs can have a significant impact on the total cost of production, they are an important factor in the pricing of thermal paper.
Transport costs have changed in recent years due to various factors. At the international level, political events such as trade wars, tariffs and sanctions can affect transport costs. Global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic have also led to changes in the transport industry, such as a decline in global trade volumes and shortages in logistics.
At the national level, transport costs can be affected by changes in the national economy and infrastructure. The condition of road and rail networks can also affect transport costs.
Overall, transport costs are an important factor in the production of thermal paper, as they can have a significant impact on the overall cost. The exact evolution of transport costs depends on many factors and can vary depending on the region and period.
What changes did the article expect in logistics over the following years as baby boomers retired?
The retirement of the so-called Baby Boomers will lead to changes in the logistics industry in the coming years. The baby boomer generation includes people born between 1946 and 1964 and represents one of the largest age groups in many countries. Many of them are currently working in the logistics industry, and their retirement will result in a huge loss of experience and knowledge.
This can present challenges for companies if they struggle to find qualified staff to fill the gaps. The article therefore calls for appropriate training and further education so that employees can take over the tasks passed on by retiring baby boomers.
In addition, the retirement of baby boomers will also have an impact on logistics infrastructure. As many baby boomers are older and may no longer be able to perform physically demanding work, the demand for automated systems and robots in the logistics industry is expected to increase.
Another important factor is that the retirement of baby boomers will also lead to a decline in the supply of labour in the logistics industry. This could lead to shortages in the supply of labour and increase labour costs. Companies must therefore take measures to retain and motivate their workforce to alleviate the labour shortage.
Overall, the retirement of Baby Boomers will lead to changes in the logistics industry. Companies need to prepare for these changes and take action to ensure they can qualify and motivate their employees to mitigate the labor shortage. Demand for automated systems and robots is expected to increase to reduce the physical burden on older workers.
Did the article therefore expect paper-production prices to continue rising in the following years?
It is difficult to make a definitive forecast for paper production, as prices depend on many factors. As mentioned above, factors such as commodity prices, energy costs, transportation costs and supply chain issues can affect the price of paper products.
Looking at the trends at the time, the historical article expected paper prices to continue rising in the near future. It identified increased demand for paper products during the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in consumer behaviour as one reason. For example, it linked increased demand for cardboard packaging to growth in online shopping.
In addition, we have also seen that commodity prices have risen in recent years and transport costs have increased due to shortages and disruptions in the supply chain. These factors may increase the cost of producing paper products and thus affect prices.
The article concluded that further paper-product price rises over the following years were likely, while stressing their dependence on economic conditions, demand and raw-material, energy and transport costs.
Why were prices on the paper market increasing?
There are several reasons for the price increases on the paper market. An important factor is the increased price of raw materials such as wood, which has increased due to scarcity and increasing demand. In addition, there are increased transport costs, energy costs and labour costs.
How much have the prices on the paper market increased?
The source reports substantial paper-market price rises in the preceding months, with some manufacturers announcing increases of up to 20 percent. It also reports higher recycled-paper prices due to increased demand for recycled materials.
How long will the price increase in the paper market last?
The article says the duration of the price increases was difficult to predict. It refers to unnamed experts who expected further increases over the following months because raw-material shortages and other factors continued to affect prices.
How does the increase in prices affect the consumer?
Paper-market price increases can also affect consumers if companies pass higher costs on to their customers. Books, newspapers and paper products sold in supermarkets are examples where such increases could be felt.